Department of Computer Science
College of Computer Studies
Course
Code: ICSM215
Course
Title: Probability Theory and
Statistics
Credit:
3 units
Term:
Second Semester
School
Year: 2004 – 2005
Schedule: 12:00 Noon – 1:30 P.M. (MW)
(Section Z22)
12:00 Noon –
1:30 P.M. (TTh) (Section Z21)
Instructor: Bernardo R. Marquez, Ph.D.
E-mail: bernard@adnu.edu.ph
Consultation
Hours: 2:00 P.M. – 3:00 P.M. (MW)
6:00 P.M. – 9:00 P.M. (Th)
2:00 P.M. – 4:30 P.M. (F)
Many natural and man-made processes are characterized
by chance and uncertainty. To arrive at meaningful and useful conclusions about
these processes, the extent and degree that chance and uncertainty are involved
have to be seriously considered in the course of the investigation. Probability
theory provides a powerful and precise language for studying processes with
outcomes that are subject to chance. In particular, the results of data
analysis through statistical methods are correctly interpreted when elements of
probability are used in the analysis.
This course covers the basic concepts and methods of
probability theory and statistics. The course begins with the mathematical formulation
of probability and a discussion of the different rules in evaluating the
probability of an event. This is followed by the concepts of random variables,
probability distributions, and mathematical expectation. The use of probability
in statistics is shown in the discussion of random sampling, data description,
and sampling distributions.
At the end of the semester,
the students are expected to:
|
1. |
Explain
and illustrate the concepts of probability, random variable, probability
distribution, and mathematical expectation. |
|
2. |
Use
the rules of probability theory in solving statistical problems. |
|
3. |
Manifest appreciation of and interest in the various mathematical concepts, and demonstrate positive values and attitudes acquired from mathematics as a discipline. |
|
Topics/Content Area |
Time Frame (in hrs.) |
|
I. Probability A. Sample space B. Events C. Counting sample points D. Probability of an event E. Additive rules F. Conditional probability G. Multiplicative rules H. Bayes’ rule |
18 |
|
II. Random variables and probability distributions A. Concept of a random variable B. Discrete probability distributions C. Continuous probability distributions D. Empirical distributions E. Joint probability distributions |
12 |
|
III. Mathematical expectation A. Mean of a random variable B. Variance and covariance C. Means and variances of linear combinations of
random variables D. Chebyshev’s theorem |
9 |
|
IV. Random sampling, data description, and some
fundamental sampling distributions A.
Random sampling B.
Some important statistics C.
Data displays and graphical methods D. Sampling distributions |
9 |
Note: (1) Four meetings are
allotted to the four major examinations.
(2) Some topics may be deleted or added depending on the
available time.
Boardwork,
Seatwork, Quizzes, Preliminary Examination, Mid-term Examination, Pre-final
Examination,
and Final Examination
CFRS = 40%CS + 10%PE + 20%ME + 10%PF + 20%FE
CS = 60%Q +
40%BS
|
where: |
CFRS |
= |
Total Converted Final Raw
Score |
|
|
CS |
= |
Class Standing |
|
|
PE |
= |
Preliminary Examination Raw
Score over the Perfect Score |
|
|
ME |
= |
Mid-term Examination Raw
Score over the Perfect Score |
|
|
PF |
= |
Pre-final Examination Raw
Score over the Perfect Score |
|
|
FE |
= |
Final Examination Raw Score
over the Perfect Score |
|
|
Q |
= |
Total Raw Score in the
Quizzes over the Total Perfect Score |
|
|
BS |
= |
Boardwork\Seatwork Grade |
Textbook
Walpole, Ronald E., Myers, Raymond H.,
and Myers, Sharon L. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists.
6th ed. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1998.
Books
Kirkpatrick, Elwood G. Introductory Statistics and Probability for
Engineering, Science, and Technology. Englewood Cliffs,
New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1974.
Mendenall, William. Introduction to Probability
and Statistics. 2nd ed. Belmont, California: Wadsworth Publishing Company, Inc., 1967.
Newmark, Joseph. Statistics and Probability in Modern Life. 4th
ed. New York: Saunders College Publishing, 1988.
Snell, J. Laurie. Introduction
to Probability. New York: Random House, Inc., 1988.
Stone, Charles J. A
Course in Probability and Statistics. Belmont,
California: Wadsworth Publishing Company, 1996.
davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html
ubmail.ubalt.edu/~harsham/statistics/REFSTAT.HTM
www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/
www.freestatistics.altervista.org/
www.nilesonline.com/stats/
Abridged
Version
11-07-03
(First Printing)
11-05-04
(Second Printing)